Below is my presentation to the DFW WordPress Meetup Group this weekend. Slideshare is still jacked up in the way it renders notes, so I’m publishing my slide notes below. It might be easiest to open a duplicate window if you want to synch note to slide. Also, sorry for the blank slides after the videos, again Slideshare fallout.
As always, I didn’t follow this script exactly, but it is close– slides without notes should be fairly self-explanatory. Also, I only did about the first two minutes of the Coke video. At the end is a Storify of the Twitter chatter.
It was a great group, really engaged and with smart questions. I really appreciated their enthusiasm, their patience with my nagging cough and the scotches afterwards…
1. I was excited when Tony asked me to do this– I am an avid WordPress user, but I do want to be clear that this isn’t a WordPress specific talk. Today I’m going to talk about why I think this is a pivotal year for shifts in media. But I think you’ll also see peppered through this some indicators of how WP users are exceedingly well positioned to capitalize on the new environment.
2-5. General explanation of what I do, background and my obsessive following of new media trends
6. Because I’m talking about trends, I think it’s important to give some transparency to how I approach these things. While data is great, we all know about lies, damn lies and statistics. I tend to pay attention to data, but more so when I find stories from credible people in the real world that either support or refute. This is by nature an inexact science. (Economy / Dance Studio example)
8. I still think 2012 is a monumental year, particularly in terms of how media impacts us and how we impact media. Everyone talks about Gutenberg printing in 1439, and I know that’s important. But face it– for the first few years, it was only the 1% who got to actually read a printed piece. It was once critical mass was hit and print was ubiquitous that it got really interesting. I think that’s where we are now with digital media. Last year, at this meeting, my good friend Terry Heaton told you that we weren’t in Kansas anymore. I’m suggesting we’re getting damn close to the gates of Oz. (And feel free to take that metaphor as far as you like.) It’s like this video clip was the Gutenberg moment and now, well, we’ve caught up.
11. So today, I’m going to cover the conveniently-numbered 12 reasons I believe 2012 is pivotal, with a caveat. I’m taking a page from my favorite songwriter, Todd Snider (who you all should listen to if you don’t already. This is a little snippet of a speech he gives at every show. My version here is a little caveat that prognostication is always a bit of a lark, and this is more intended to be a conversation starter — and I hope we’ll have some good conversation at the end — than it is an edict from the future. Don’t go make stock investments based on any of this.
12-13: Moore’s law isn’t really about transistors though– it’s about what they enable. It’s about our ubiquitous and remarkable iPhone and Android phones being less than 5 years old. It’s about what you can do with the technology in arts, medicine– in life. And as we near the threshold of Moore’s law, many futurists believe that we reach a “technological singularity” where innovation iterates almost instantaneously. Just pause and think about that a minute.
14-16: These are at heart not purely technological things, but illustrate the pace at which things are changing. Pulitzer for real-time reporting; Wikipedia from unreliable to indispensable; age of iPhone/Android
17: Completely disagree with Seth Godin’s analysis of the end of Project Domino, and that a flood of new content stymies content form innovation
Moore’s law moves faster than economics. In so many of our industries– books, movies, news– The explosion of content just hasn’t caught the addiction to hits… Yet. But every two years we get twice as close.
18. I really believe this is the biggest tech trend of 2012. Despite all the innovations we’ve seen, it’s preposterous that the state of the art in the average home is an interface that wouldn’t make a 2002 Blackberry jealous.
19. I fear that sometimes people like us forget that despite all we do online, the average American (which sadly at times includes us) STILL spends a disproportionate amount of their time watching television in realtime. That’s not to say that all the techie goodies we use every day aren’t awesome, but imagine the state of innovation as it becomes more mainstream to access the TV with an iPad; to have access to the full web and not some crapped-up neutered version on a TV. To not have to buy an incomprehensible bundle of channels, but instead filter through an incomprehensible multitude of one-off programs. This is a huge shift. It’s one we’ve been promised for a decade now, and it’s only not happened because of the traditional broadcasters digging their heels in. Now they’re out of room.
20. Yes, I’m an Apple fanboy. But I’m not saying Apple is going to take over TV, any more than they’ve completely taken over mobile. But what they DO this year — and they are clearly doing something — will spark adoption of other platforms and innovation across the board. Obviously, you have Google trying to reboot their efforts in this area too. Verizon’s debuting a single wireless cable box for the house that feeds all your devices– and the top TV maker, Samsung, who also is active in mobile has to be watched too. The one area in which I’m a bit of a heretic here is that I’m dubious that we’re going to constantly buy new TV’s for enhanced content and interactivity versus picture. I’m of the school of Fred Wilson (AVC) that we’re going to have more dumb TV’s and smart boxes. Or at least plugin sticks like Roku is doing. I love my AppleTV2 box, but they’d have to do something really mind blowing to get me to dump a new 55” Plasma.
21-23: There will be lots of interesting fallout around this. What happens to LA when the traditional TV industry takes a huge hit? (One media entrepreneur I read suggests it becomes a hotbed of innovation.) What about local TV affiliates? As they do less and less local programming and network programming means less and less, what becomes of them and what replaces them? Don’t think they’re getting left out in the cold? Consider that this year is the first streaming SuperBowl. As the local affiliates wane, you’re going to see some interesting re-inventions– I even have an inkling that a lot of that may be centered here in Dallas.
24. General discussion of impact to tablets
25. This one is, maybe surprisingly, my personal favorite.
26-28. Every day, the portal site (that isn’t named Facebook) marches a day closer to death. Everything is increasingly decentralized and content moves towards the atomic unit. You don’t read the New York Times you read that article off Flipboard or a Twitter link. And it’s finally OK to admit that most banner ads are a waste of bits and bites. A new Comscore study reports less than 1/3 of reported ad impressions actually get seen by anyone. Want to put them higher up to improve that? Last week Google started penalizing for too many ads above the fold. Targeting ads to content? Not working so well. (And let’s not kid ourselves that banner ads are anything but traditional ads shoved in a new format.)
29-32. That doesn’t mean there aren’t ads, but I see in the industry a growing understanding that the old stuff doesn’t work. eMarketer says that 2012 is the first year that online revenues will pass print. And when you compare print cost to online, you have to realize that’s a massive volume driving the equation.
I won’t presume to tell you what THE next thing will be, because it will be a panopoly. But here’s some good guesses:
1. Facebook ads everywhere
2. Stores within widgets within content within sites– Cinsay local example. When will we stop focusing on traditional units? And how does that impact your site’s templates?
3. I think the WordPress/Federated media deal is a bust for you. Does little harm, but until I see evidence to contrary, I think is based on a dead ad unit that can’t be customized enough to matter.
4. Big daily deals shakeout. Will move towards second-ly deals.
33. The success of Twitter and Facebook are making long-form blogging (for profit) sexy again. SM great, but needs something to drive people to. Read Dallas-based Copyblogger and you’ll find they’re seeing the same. I’ve worked a lot this year with a company who created an assignment desk tool for newsrooms that is completely refocusing on creators of marketing content.
Coke’s Content Marketing 2020: http://www.copyblogger.com/coca-cola-content-marketing/— Talking about quality and editorial calendars like the NYT: “Liquid and Linked”
36. End of SEO supremacy with rise of social and G+ example
39. Even before Apple’s announcement of a new books format this week, including a new authoring tool, I believed that this is the year that books really transform into something else. Up to now, there’s been very tame additional functionality in an ebook. Now we add video, HTML blocks, games, tests. This opens a zillion pandora’s boxes?
1. Is it a book? An app? A website? Something else?
2. Is it ever done? (Particularly nonfiction)
3. Endless editions- College model. 5×15= 75
40. Scrivener vs. iAuthor
41. Description of my Prison Entrepreneurship multimedia project with Mayborn School, web, video, book, ebook
42-45. Louis CK
Liz Heron, NY Times Soc Media Editor: “I think my job will probably not exist in five years.”
Social Media makes SEO less relevant– was already happening before G+
(Steven Dennis) E-commerce and retail “difference without distinction”
46. Because there’s less control to go around, those who have control are defending it with their lives.
Google search and +; Apple’s books gambit; Amazon’s Fire and war on local including Local deals
Someone breathtaking will get bought
Big year for M&A
Look for it to be harder and harder to build a scalable, profitable service outside the walls
Amazon and Apple trying to kill publishers
48. Arab Spring, Occupy– What happens if/when discontent goes mainstream AND we’re wired. How many of you actually participated in Occupy movement? What if YOU were disenchanted?
Impact of elections on media revenues and innovations– but about to get shocked by Google and FB
49. Online competitors for election ad attention
50. Occupy and Arab Spring just the beginning.
51-52. My analogy for how to cross a chasm
Now that there are so many people covering the hits, mentioning Bieber and Kardashian for SEO, it’s like we’ve hit the MAD of media. And so now the only option is to go back to the special, the unique, the one-on-one.
55. Hacks this week
If they can take something like the FBI, they can take something really important like Facebook… Or Google
When it disrupts you, it matters
56. Facebook becomes THE key local platform
“HyLoMo” sucks because the input sucks
Too many local products without scale or local sales
- IBM smashes Moore’s Law, cuts bit size to 12 atoms (infoworld.com)
- Another Reprieve for Moore’s Law (carpenano.blogspot.com)
- Moore’s law squared (johndcook.com)
- Which Social Platform is the ‘Quiet Giant’ of the Content Marketing World? (edelman.com.au)